Monday, November 03, 2008

Electoral Vote Prediction

I've been predicting my own electoral vote map for the past month or so; now that it's election eve I thought I'd share it with you.



I long thought 338 would be a huge, huge win for Obama and my call for NC to go to the Dems is what looks to be my biggest gamble. The only way I see McCain winning is to take FL-PA-OH-NC. On average, FL is +3%, PA is +7%, OH is +4%, (for Obama) and NC is a tie. 

My home state of IN, which is now -1%, would be the biggest switch state of them all. Bush had +21% in 2004 and +16% in 2000.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Going into the final two days, polling data suggested Obama would narrowly lose Indiana; I thought a -2% would be a 'victory' in terms of changing Hoosier perspectives and a true indicator of how the nation felt. I would never have thought his ground team could make this much of a difference!